POlITICO and GW Predict Republican Victory on November 4

The first political of three breakdowns for this November Election was on the table as Politico, in conjunction with GW, hosted a panel of analysts to discuss the new battleground polls released on Thursday morning. Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners debriefed the information and opened a forum of the strengths and weaknesses in their respective parties.

Surprisingly, the partisan split of the poll showed an even divide with 43% voting Democrat, 43% voting Republican and 15% undecided. Regardless, Politico correspondent Charles Mahtesian estimated that on November 4th republicans will have a big night picking up the 39 seats necessary to win the House and the 10 needed to recapture the senate. The reason for this lies behind the idea that in congressional elections, Democrats tend to refrain from voting whereas Republicans tend to vote in higher numbers.

The Democratic analysis, led by Celinda Lake, observed that although the party is doomed to lose seats in November, they still have higher poll standings than the Republicans. On top of this, the president and vice president still have high personal approval ratings allowing them to campaign for congressional candidates.

The republican analysis took another approach. The usual high voter turnout aligned with anger amongst independents over the economy will lead, in Ed Goeas’ opinion, to a large swing allowing states normally in the blue regions to turn red. He brought up the fact that, even though the president’s personal approval rating is high, he has failed to stimulate the economy and many voters, both republican and independent, are angry about the direction that the country is headed in.

After the debate dust settled and the analysis spread out, one thing became clear; Republicans are destined for an exciting November.